Are we living through a crisis of competence?

Yes, there is a growing public discourse suggesting that we are living through a crisis of competence, characterized by perceived failures of institutions, experts, and elites in addressing major societal challenges.

Public Discourse on a Crisis of Competence

The notion of a crisis of competence has gained traction in recent years as a way to describe widespread distrust in the ability of institutions, experts, and elites to effectively manage critical issues. This discourse often centers on high-profile failures during events like the COVID-19 pandemic, where institutional responses were criticized for ignoring prior evidence and planning. For instance, pre-COVID pandemic plans, including those from the World Health Organization and Johns Hopkins University in 2019, highlighted weak evidence for non-pharmaceutical interventions such as lockdowns and school closures, yet these measures were widely implemented with significant social and economic costs[1]. Critics argue that such decisions reflect a failure to adhere to established knowledge, prioritizing political optics over empirical grounding, thus eroding public trust[1].

This sentiment is compounded by broader critiques of elite performance across various domains, including economic policy, foreign affairs, and scientific integrity. Economic data reliability has come under scrutiny, with reports of errors in national statistics like those from the UK’s Office for National Statistics, undermining trust in foundational economic indicators[2]. Similarly, historical policy missteps, such as the Iraq War, are cited as evidence of systemic incompetence, with public frustration often directed at leaders rather than introspective analysis of societal complicity[3]. In academia, cases of scientific misconduct, such as the revocation of tenure for Harvard professor Francesca Gino due to data manipulation allegations, and the devastating consequences of falsified medical research by Don Poldermans, highlight how individual failures can have far-reaching impacts on public health and trust in science[4][5].

Populist Backlash and Distrust in Expertise

A significant aspect of this crisis is the populist backlash against elites and experts, fueled by perceived incompetence and disconnect. Populist movements worldwide, from Trump’s MAGA in the United States to Brexit in the UK, have capitalized on public frustration with establishment failures in areas like pandemic management, financial crises, and immigration policy[6]. This backlash is not necessarily tied to an increase in elite failures over time but rather to a cultural shift where elites are seen as embracing cosmopolitan values that alienate many voters[6]. Public trust in government, as measured by Pew Research, has remained historically low, with only 22% of Americans trusting the federal government to do what is right “just about always” or “most of the time” as of May 2024, a stark decline from the 1950s when trust was around 75%[7]. This erosion is often linked to major political and social crises, further exacerbating distrust in institutional competence[7].

Media outlets, such as NPR, have also faced criticism for losing public trust due to perceived bias and failure to self-correct after major missteps, such as the sparse coverage of the Mueller report’s findings on Trump-Russia collusion or the dismissal of the Hunter Biden laptop story[8]. This has led to a fragmented audience, with conservatives and moderates increasingly turning away from traditional sources, further deepening the crisis narrative[8].

Debate on Expertise and Alternative Voices

The discourse also includes a heated debate over the value of expertise versus alternative voices. Critics of the expert class, including podcast hosts like Joe Rogan, argue that non-experts have sometimes outperformed credentialed authorities on issues like COVID-19 policies, pointing to failures in vaccine messaging and lockdown efficacy[9][10]. Conversely, defenders of expertise, such as Sam Harris and Douglas Murray, contend that while experts have faltered, the solution lies in elevating credible voices rather than amplifying uncredentialed commentators who may spread misinformation[9][10]. This tension reflects a broader societal struggle to define who should be trusted to guide public policy and opinion.

Conclusion

The public discourse on a crisis of competence is multifaceted, encompassing institutional failures, declining trust in expertise, and the rise of populist and alternative media narratives. While some argue these failures are not new or uniquely severe, the perception of incompetence has significantly shaped public attitudes, driving a wedge between elites and the broader population. This ongoing debate underscores the challenge of rebuilding trust in a polarized and rapidly changing information landscape.

Sources

[1] Frances Lee & Stephen Macedo on Why Institutions Failed During COVID (https://yaschamounk.substack.com/p/frances-lee-and-stephen-macedo) - Argues that institutional failures during COVID, such as ignoring prior evidence on non-pharmaceutical interventions, led to loss of public trust.
[2] Economists Don’t Know What’s Going On (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/24/economists-dont-know-whats-going-on) - Highlights issues with economic data reliability, such as errors in UK statistics, undermining trust in economic indicators.
[3] The Wrong Lessons of Iraq (https://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2007/05/the_wrong_lessons_of_iraq.html) - Suggests societal scapegoating of leaders like Bush avoids deeper introspection about collective responsibility for policy failures.
[4] Harvard Revokes Tenure of Star Business Professor (https://www.wgbh.org/news/education-news/2025-05-25/in-extremely-rare-move-harvard-revokes-tenure-and-cuts-ties-with-star-business-professor) - Reports on Francesca Gino’s tenure revocation due to academic misconduct allegations, raising questions about research integrity.
[5] Scientific Fraud Solutions (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/368350/scientific-research-fraud-crime-jail-time) - Discusses the case of Don Poldermans, whose falsified research on beta blockers may have contributed to significant mortality rates, illustrating the impact of scientific misconduct.
[6] Elite Failures and Populist Backlash (https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash) - Explores how populist movements are driven by perceived elite failures, though not necessarily by an increase in their severity, but by cultural disconnects.
[7] Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024/) - Provides data showing a long-term decline in trust in the US government, correlating with major crises and political polarization.
[8] NPR Editor: How We Lost America’s Trust (https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust) - Critiques NPR’s shift towards advocacy and failure to correct major reporting errors, contributing to loss of audience trust.
[9] Podcast Bros and Brain Rot (https://ncofnas.com/p/podcast-bros-and-brain-rot) - Debates the value of expertise versus non-expert voices, with critics arguing that podcast hosts have sometimes outperformed experts on controversial issues.
[10] In Defence of Non-Experts (https://www.aporiamagazine.com/p/in-defence-of-non-experts) - Discusses the tension between expert authority and non-expert commentary in public discourse, as highlighted in debates on platforms like Joe Rogan’s podcast.

Suggested Sources[edit]

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